NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 PM MDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

ONLY A FEW RATHER FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OVER WRN NM/ERN AZ. NAM STILL DEVELOPS
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT WITH LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WILL GO AHEAD AND
REMOVE POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST AND KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH
WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT MORNING MAY KICK
UP ENOUGH OF A DRAINAGE WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES TO
KEEP MINS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 SLIGHTLY WARMER. ON SATURDAY...700
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE 14-16C RANGE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS 10-15F MOST LOCATIONS VERSUS FRIDAY`S NUMBERS.
GUIDANCE MAXES LOOK JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM...THUS WENT A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS LEE TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK...KEEPING BEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPR FLOW WL BECOME WESTERLY AND WL
INCREASE AS AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES. THE AIR
MASS OVR THE CWA WL BE QUITE DRY AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES ON SUN
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
MOST OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. WINDS ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY. IF THE FUELS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WERE CRITICAL
THERE WOULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. BUT SINCE THE FUELS ARE NOT
CRITICAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WL BE ISSUED. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEATHER WL BE DRY. SUN NIGHT
THE UPR TROF WL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WHICH WL IN TURN SEND A FRONT
INTO SERN CO MON MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...MOVING IT SOUTH INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY
NOON. THE AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ON MON AND
PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEG
COOLER THAN ON SUN ACRS THE PLAINS. A NEW UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW LATE TUE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA
DRY ON TUE. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY...BUT DRAWS A LITTLE MSTR UP
INTO WRN CO FROM THE SOUTH. WL LEAVE ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST OVR
THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ON WED THE UPR TROF IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU AND ACRS MT AND WY ON FRI. WED THIS DAY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS DRAW MSTR UP FROM THE SOUTH OVR THE FORECAST AREA
AND WL LEAVE ISOLD POPS ALL AREAS. THU THE GFS DRYS US OUT...WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. THEN ON FRI BOTH MODELS ARE DRY OVR THE CWA.

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.