I’m not an economist and this is only my interpretation of what I see happening with the stock market, the economy and the treasury market.
The market has completely panicked. The DOW fell -265 points on August 2nd, 2011 and -512.76 August 4th 2011, as investors fled stocks and put their money into government backed securities like short-term and long-term treasury’s.
The fear of a debt default, which was completely unfounded (politicized by Obama and Geithner), has been eliminated now that the debt ceiling has been increased and the government has the authority to borrow more money. At the same time, the economy appears to be heading towards a double dip recession as the entire year of 2011 had its GDP numbers revised downward. In addition, manufacturing data, unemployment, and the dollar’s value are all getting worse and there doesn’t appear to be any positive momentum to reverse these numbers.