Economy

My views on the economic outlook of the United States and what the future has in store for us all.

Recession Imminent Due to Liquidity Problem?

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

UPDATE: Since this original post, the Fed has now pumped more than $1T into the banking Repo markets and there is no end in sight. Fed Chairman Powell today indicated the US was not heading into a recession and said the economy is doing quite well. Consumer spending is up, housing starts are good. But in the same breath indicated the Fed was again cutting its lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Seems rather contradictory considering the Fed cuts its rate when it needs to spur the…
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Is the DOW a Good Measure of Stock Market Health?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is nothing more than an index of carefully picked stocks whose relevancy as to how well the stock market and economy are doing is misleading. Perhaps decades ago, it was a useful tool since it was comprised of the major industrial companies within the United States such as steel companies and auto manufacturers, (hence DOW Jones “Industrial” Average), but that isn’t the case anymore. Within the United States, there are roughly 5,000 companies traded on the stock exchanges. However, the DOW is composed of…
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Violent Crime in United States Down Sharply – 1992 Through 2010

Despite all the negative attention the mainstream media gives to isolated acts of violence, the facts clearly show violent crime in the United States is down sharply between the years 1992 and 2010. In fact, it’s remarkable. So remarkable, it’s hard to believe no agency, person, or organization wants to claim credit for such a heroic superman feat. Perhaps that’s because no one knows why violent crime is on the decline, but it’s unmistakable that something amazing has happened. And when I say decline, I’m not talking about a highly…
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Fiscal Cliff Deal is a Joke. The Bill Solves Nothing.

fiscal cliff

After months of hype and hysteria, we are no better off with this new deal than we were before. In fact, we’re worse off for numerous reasons. The first being, there are only $40 billion in cuts, but $330 billion in new spending. That’s a net increase in borrowing of $290 billion. I thought we were supposed to cut spending, not increase it? Second, there is a 2.5% tax increase on everyone earning an income greater than $50K a year. This is the payroll tax increase that helps contribute to…
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Obama Wins Reelection – United We Stand, Divided We Fall

It’s clear to me — as it should be to everyone else — that the majority in this country are more socially liberal and secular than they used to be. We’ve now shifted to a slightly left of center position. Homosexuality is no longer taboo and is becoming more accepted, to include gay marriage now being legal in a multitude of States. The prohibition status of marijuana is taking fire as two states have now chosen to legalize it for recreational use (Colorado and Washington) in direct contradiction to Federal…
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The Real Unemployment Rate in the United States

unemployment

There is a lot of skepticism when it comes to the unemployment rate. The government says it’s 8.1% (as of April 2012) and so do most in the media. Even the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the agency responsible for calculating the official unemployment rate says it’s 8.1%. But they also say it’s 9.5% and even 14.5%. How can this be? Which is it? Why are there 3 different unemployment rates? Strange as it may be, there are actually six. The better question is, why are they choosing the 8.1%…
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Has Inflation Already Arrived in the United States?

For those of you who think inflation hasn’t hit the United States, think again. All one needs to do is visit the grocery store, go to the gas station, or look at the prices of the raw materials used in manufacturing, farming or construction. It’s pretty hard to dispute prices haven’t dramatically risen over the last few years. So why all the confusion about the inflation rate and how it’s affecting prices? The government would like you to believe inflation is under control and right around 3.1% annually, which they…
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