Ignoring a hurricane evacuation order and riding it out is a very risky and potentially fatal decision for a number of reasons. Hurricanes are a very serious storm that should never be taken lightly. If local officials are telling you to evacuate, it’s best to take their advice and get out of harms way, regardless of how big the hurricane is at that point in time.
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Hurricanes travel great distances and can have very irregular paths. As an example, in 1995, hurricane Roxanne had one of the most bizarre paths recorded in recent times. The hurricane actually backtracked, stalled, then went forward again. Although irregular, this is not uncommon and shows the unpredictability of a hurricanes path. |
Although the National Hurricane Center sends out projected paths a hurricane may take, there are probabilities tied to these projections. With each hour that goes by, the projections change and as a result, so do the probabilities of landfall locations and intensities. One may think that because their location isn’t even in the 72-hour projected path, they are safe. This isn’t true. The conditions 3-days out probably indicated the hurricane would miss them, but say the next day comes around and some other influences have now entered the equation (high pressure ridge over the mid-west, shift in the sub-tropical jet stream). The 48-hour projection may now have your location as a direct hit and instead of a the hurricane being a category 2, it’s now a category 4. Don’t think this doesn’t happen …. it does and has. Hurricane Wilma intensified from a Tropical Storm to Category 5 Hurricane in just 16 hours with a wind speed increase from 70 mph to 155 mph.
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If at the last minute you realize the storm has greatly intensified and you don’t want to ride it out anymore, getting out of town may be near impossible. There will most certainly be traffic jams and finding a place to stay will be difficult at best. You may find your family sleeping in the car on the side of the road someplace exposed to the elements. Even though the self-pay gas stations might be open for business, that’s not to say |
they will have gas. Tanker trucks will not be enter an area under a hurricane warning and with a majority of the people leaving town, gas could be very difficult to find.
If the overall wind speed is around 105mph, that doesn’t mean the wind will never exceed that. Hurricanes often have mini-tornadoes embedded within the eye wall where the wind speeds are considerably higher. Extensive destruction can happen on a very localized scale despite the fact the hurricane is only a category 2. There is no way to predict where these localized winds will occur which is almost always why there are tornado warnings associated with hurricanes.
So it’s best to watch the news closely if a hurricane is approaching your area. Evacuating only to find out the hurricane missed you is far better than rolling the dice, sticking around, then wishing you hadn’t. Don’t gamble you families life to save face.

